The Indian economy has resisted trade wars (with the US) by forging trade agreements (with the EU and the UK), and proven resilient so far perhaps because of them.

Just the last two weeks are telling. India has deepened relations with the French with the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron. Brazil’s Prime Minister Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was in India immediately after on a four-day trip between 18-22 February. Now Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on a two-day visit to Israel, and Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to be in India immediately after that.

Much of India’s growth, however, has proven reliable because it has come from within. In a speech in Mumbai last week, K. Rajaraman, Chairperson of the International Financial Services Centres Authority, said that the economy is growing because of demand within the country.

While demand from other countries helps, for India domestic demand is the main driver.

“Inflation is low. And foreign investment has increased 16.1 per cent compared to last year between April and November 2025,” he said. “The outlook, therefore, is one of steady growth of around 7 per cent amid global uncertainty, requiring caution, but not pessimism.”

The outlook, therefore, is one of steady growth of around 7 per cent amid global uncertainty, requiring caution, but not pessimism.

— K. Rajaraman, Chairperson of the IFSCA

Back in Mumbai, the country’s leading public sector State Bank of India is more optimistic than that by 100 basis points.

In a research report released this week, SBI has “nowcasted” third quarter real GDP growth for the country. “Nowcast”, because it estimates what is happening right now using current data, instead of a “forecast” which predicts what will happen in the future.

SBI also points at resilient economic activity. Rural consumption is strong it says, and help from government has supported urban spending, in cities where spends are higher than that of the last festive season.

In its quarterly review of Indian companies released also in February, the Reserve Bank of India has shared its gathered data about their performance.

Sales have grown by 10.1 per cent compared to last year, it says - in the double digits mainly because manufacturing companies did much better. When it comes to profits, both manufacturing and IT companies saw operating profits rise by more than 11 per cent (profit growth slowed to 4 per cent for non-IT services companies).

India is updating its GDP base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23. This revision, along with an updated CPI base (2024), aims to better reflect the current economic structure, including increased digital commerce, e-Vahan registrations, and new data sources like GST. “All the previous quarterly numbers of Q1 and Q2 are expected to change with the base revision to 2022-23,” says the SBI report.

The Second Advance Estimates of GDP for 2025-26, as well as quarterly GDP estimates as per the new base 2022-23, will be released on 27 February.